Predicting the Path to 2028
Politics has become a high-profile betting game. Today, I’m pontificating on our future presidential candidates and locking in my predictions. Join me for some purely spectator fun as we watch what unfolds over the next four years.
The Predictions!
California Governor Gavin Newsom and New York Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, aka AOC, will be the top contenders for the Democrat's presidential nominee. Both conclude their terms in January 2027.
I disagree with much of their politics, but both present themselves and speak a thousand times better than Vice President Kamala Harris ever could.
Either will put up a formidable fight to be President #48.
1a. Gavin for Democrat Presidential nominee
1b. AOC for Democrat Presidential nominee
1c. Other?
Gavin names AOC as his VP running mate.
2a. AOC for Dem VP nom
2b. No way - she’ll be the Dem prez nom!
Kamala retreats from the public eye for a few months to lick her wounds and regroup.
Then she campaigns to replace Gavin as Governor of California.
It won't be the cakewalk she likely expects. As of November 7, 2024, with almost two-thirds of votes counted, Trump has nearly 40% of California. The long-time, one-party, blue state is primed for some decent gubernatorial competition from Republicans and/or Independents.
3a. Kamala becomes the next CA Gov.
3b. Kamala loses the CA Gov race and fades into the political shadows.
3c. Kamala leaves politics with no CA Gov run; rakes in millions on book tours.
3d. Other?
Tim Walz fades into political oblivion.
4a. Who is Walz?
4b. Other?
Vance earns the Republican presidential nomination.
5a. Vance for Rep prez nom
5b. Other?
Vance names Tulsi Gabbard to be his VP running mate.
6a. Tulsi for Rep VP nom
6b. Nope - she’ll be the Rep prez nom vs AOC for the Dems.
6c. Other?
The Republican Party is officially reborn as the Unity Party.
7a. Yay, Unity!
7b. Don’t mess with the GOP
P'Nut the Squirrel, decked out in red, white, and blue, is the new party symbol for the moderate right (whether still “Republican Party” or new “Unity Party”).
OK, this one is unlikely, but it would be awesome!
8a. Justice for P’Nut! (and for Fred the Raccoon)
8b. Um, no.
Bonus Prediction (disproven as of 20 Jan 25)
Despite losing the election, Kamala will still become the first female US President.
Biden steps down before Inauguration Day, ending his legacy by crowning Kamala as the first female President of the United States, even if only for a few short days or weeks.
I suspect he dislikes her immensely for being part of the coup when Dems kicked him to the curb.
But he is also prideful. Taking credit for making her the first female VP and the first female POTUS would certainly salvage and cement his 50-year political legacy.
Extra points to Biden for transitioning from 1970s racist segregationist... to author of the devastating 1994 Crime Bill... to anointer of the first female person-of-color VP and POTUS.
OR
Kamala uses the 25th Amendment to seize the presidency from Biden for the last few weeks of their term, securing her place in history as the first female POTUS. And as the first person to invoke the 25th to oust a president.
Ever prideful and power-hungry, I don't think Kamala can stand the idea of being "THIS CLOSE!" and not achieving that pinnacle of her career.
During her concession speech, she laid the groundwork to continue as a leader in the fight against Orange Man Bad. Making herself the first female POTUS would certainly bolster that effort.
The Cabinet and/or the designated Congressional body concur, even if they dislike her, to push through a few last legislative actions that were too extreme even for Biden. And for the privilege of being part of history by ensuring the Democrats can claim the first female POTUS.
Biden pushes back for a minute. The Democrat Machine forces his hand, as they did after his disastrous debate performance, and he relinquishes control.
Under either option, Kamala’s coronation as the first female US President is complete.
Comment below on with which predictions you think will prove out. Looking forward to watching the show play out on the political stage.
Making bets like this is definitely out of my area of expertise. I'm not political at all. But I admire what you've done in terms of the research :-)
Just for fun....
My "Bonus" prediction was disproven as of 20 Jan 25, and Gavin's future has become a bit more uncertain since I first posted this in Nov '24.
The real jockeying for 2028 begins today.
We'll see if any of these prove out.